A Numbers Game

With no advertisement except for the exposure of having a few out working on job sites the first ten units would have sold themselves because if Joe Blow the plumber shows up on the job with the truck, Tom the electrician, Dick the roofer, and Harry the drywaller will likely notice how nice the World's Greatest Work truck is to work out of and at least one of them would have thought about the needless work the truck would save them and the money they'd be saving as well. Maybe Harry is the only guy who noticed Joe Blow's truck and was able to put two and two together and decided he wanted to have a truck like Joe Blow's.  

Since Sunnyside only kicked out ten units right off the bat and there was only one guy who saw each truck that had the brains to put two and two together means each of the ten trucks would have sold itself to another customer within thirty days.   Therefore, Sunnyside would have to have another ten built by the second month. Then as you can assume -- during the second month there would have been twenty units rolling onto job sites and then another twenty Tom, Dick, or Harrys' would be smart enough to put two and two together then decide that they would be stupid if they didn't get one for themselves. If so, by the third month Sunnyside is going to have to find a way to kick out twenty units to keep up with the demand. As thing go, the fourth month he'd have to kick out forty units, now wouldn't he? As the log rhythm goes the fifth month it would be up to eighty and no doubt Sunnyside would have been farming out most of the manufacturing of the components to local fabrication shops and focusing on an automated ways of performing assembly and installation work by then.

        If you doubt the units would sell themselves in thirty days, then how come I had guys in Los Angeles asking me every week or two if they could buy mine, even though the cab is all bashed to hell? Believe me, once per month is putting it lightly because I know it's more like every week. So get out your calculator and play with those numbers at selling once per month. I did it myself and in fourteen months it's up to 40,960 units per month. In fifteen months it would hit 81,960. Not saying it would reach those numbers as soon as that, but according to my estimate it would level off in the United States at about 40-50,000 unites per month.

Here's the game:

If only half the light weight truck sold in the US are actually used for work trucks that would equal to 100,000 works per month. If 2 out of 3 of those work truck were trucks like mine the numbers of work trucks needed would drop considerably even if there was a rush on updating company fleets. So a practical number for all the new work trucks needed would be cut to 50-60,000 unites per month. At 60,000 trucks per month, my share would be about 40,000. That is if I didn't build them too well and they lasted twice as long as junk they offer you now.

        Keep in mind that in the United States alone 200,000 light trucks are built every month and globally there is about 600,000 light trucks built per month. (So if you think globally, I think it's safe to say it would be between 50,000 and 100,000 per month.)

Another angle on this pitch: The auto manufactures realize that result of my 40-50,000 unites, their 200,000 unite per month in the US alone would be depleting to 120,000 per month. That loss of 80,000 unites at only a $5,000 profit each would result in a loss of $400,000 per month in profits. You may guess how much money they are willing to spend to keep that revenue.

I'd like to advise you that you just read the watered down version. The real deal can be found at or, however you've got to believe in corruption and anti-trust laws but of course stuff like that doesn't go on in the US of A.

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Copyright 2007. All rights reserved.   Dennis James Sattler